November 10, 2020
BIOINVEST NEWS
Special Update: Vaxart (VXRT) – Pfizer/BNTX COVID-19 Vaccine Shows Better-Than-Expected Efficacy – The Vaccine Era Begins – Stocks Include AZN, JNJ, PFE/BNTX. MRNA, NVAX, VXRT, SNY/GSK
Following up on key features and still questions on the exceptional >90% efficacy in the first Phase II/III trial of their mRNA COVID vaccine from Pfizer/BNTX. BUY VXRT here as Rick Bright is back (see below).
- 7 Day Response – The strong efficacy was measured 7 days after the second vaccine dose in >42,000 subjects.
- Need A Bit Longer, Likely Goes Down – PFE released the data a bit earlier than expected because of the better-than-expected response that even if it begins to attenuate over time, will very likely be in the >60-70% rate most were looking and hoping for. In its call this morning, German-partner BNTX said that based upon the Phase II data, they do expect up to a year of protection from neutralizing antibodies. Hence, we believe the next update will still show strong numbers but probably not 90%.
- Devil in the Details – No breakout yet of the elderly response or the results in severe disease patients. Early trials showed a strong response, but we don’t know the overall make-up yet.
- Logistics still a challenge; Expect tiered rollout – Subject will need to go to their doctor’s office twice – three weeks apart – to receive a full vaccine dose. In addition the vaccine needs to be stored at very low temperatures. Therefore, while the first data look is remarkable, we are at the very early stages of the general population receiving the vaccine. PFE did not receive any research funding from Operation Warp Speed, but has received $2 billion in payments for vaccine doses.
- Expect a Deluge of Others – MRNA – also mRNA-based – is expected to have its own data this month. AZN/Oxford will have U.K. results, then JNJ and so on. It’s going to be crowded and, like the flu vaccine, there will be a handful of established players and smaller, earlier next-generation firms in the market. Some with competitive advantages.
- Don’t Forget Little VXRT – Shares of MTSL Recommendation VXRT have been crushed of late – the majority of the weakness is based upon an S-1 filing to raise funds when they released positive pre-clinical results and the start of Phase I trials, but also after yesterday’s PFE data. With the ONLY pill COVID vaccine, VXRT has one of the best if not the best ease-of-use options should its vaccine be successful – you can take the pill orally and at home, it may be stored at room temperature. Initial human will be released soon and there will be a KOL day sponsored by LifeSci Advisors on November 19. Please tune in and add or initiate to positions at current severely depressed levels.
- Rick Bright is Back – Yesterday, President-Elect Joe Biden named its own pandemic task force including Dr. Rick Bright. As you may recall, Bright ran BARDA until April when President Trump fired him for being a whistle-blower suggesting that all the vaccine funding was politically driven. From what we understand, Bright was a fan of VXRT’s technology. The Company has an existing small BARDA deal for the universal flu vaccine (and an option deal with JNJ). Hence, Bright’s unexpected firing we believe is why VXRT got behind in the OWS race. Now that Bright is back, we believe it will lead to good news with VXRT’s oral COVID vaccine down the road.
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